HP給Xerox CEO的信
上篇談了大聯大/文曄案的想法，無獨有偶，近期美國也有一個和類似的案子正在發生，就是印表機/辦公室設備大廠Xerox(全錄)提議用一股$22 ($17元現金+XEROX股票)收購另一家大廠HP. 這篇就來談談這件事。
這個案子最早是Xerox在11/5提出，12天後HP董事會就以出價過低為由以公開信拒絕了。不久後Xerox又提了一次，收購價格一樣，只是口氣更硬了: 要是你們在11/25前再不同意，我們就直接進行至尊對決─公開收購，一切交由股東決定。所以在11/24(日)，HP再次以公開信回覆Xerox CEO表達拒絕，這篇文章主要就是給大家看看這第二封信，也順便了解美國公司是怎麼處理這種不合意收購的。
為什麼我覺得這封信很值得台灣參考? (信的原文在最下面)
第一 從這封信你可以看出來，HP是怎麼假藉回信Xerox 實則說服HP股東不要賣股的
還記得Xerox 說如果HP再拒絕，就要從11/25起開始公開收購嗎?
所以這封信與其說公開拒絕Xerox，其實更像是直接向HP股東說明，為什麼我們考量後要拒絕這個收購，因為合併案不只是對我們不好，對你們也不好。
首先，對HP的股東來說，面對收購要約，心裡的初步想法必然是，原本HP股價(HPQ)大概都是19~20元，既然有人要出22元為什麼不賣? 是不是你們這些經營層有私心?
於是你看到了，這二封信都是公開的，某種程度也化解了股東擔心經營層私下交易的疑慮。其次，還記得上一篇大聯大/文曄說的，在全現金的收購下，股東只要考慮1.落袋為安 2. 等下一個出高價者(白衣武士) 3. 相信公司會創造更高價值所以不賣!
問題是這個案子是現金+股票的交易，所以就讓HP高層找到了突破口
HP高層很聰明，雖然二封信都明拒絕Xerox，但也沒有把話說死─door is still open，事情還是可以談滴。這麼一來既沒有斷掉談判之路，二來也不會讓股東覺得HP就是一開始就鐵了心否決。可是看似Open的環境下，HP卻提出了一個強而有力的論點暗示股東: 別忘了這是筆現金+股票的交易，所以表面上看是22元，但如果合併後新的Xerox股價大跌，你們股東可能根本沒賺到反而倒虧，這就是我們幫股東把關後，為什麼決定要拒絕的原因。(事實上HP還用Xerox和Fuji Film破局的事酸了一把，暗示Xerox管理層很爛)
但暗示人家合併後股價會大跌似乎還不夠有力說服股東，於是這封信裡，HP也假藉回答Xerox順便給了自家股東一個希望，我們會透過加大股票回購的力道，來回饋股東。
試想一下如果你是HP 的股東看到了這封信，你會不會覺得留在HP好像比較好? (更不要說Xerox以小吃大本來就讓人質疑)。
第二個可以讓台灣學習的，就是整起事件迄今，從股東或外部人來看，HP經營層塑造的氛圍都是他們是用理性和成熟的心態來處理這件事，而不是我上篇批評文曄和矽品哭街式的控訴。HP管理層和董事是不是真的理性我不知道，但至少他們的公關部門會去把公司包裝成這樣。為什麼?
台灣要選總統了，你想看看，你要的總統是一個遇到事情就哭哭啼啼、或是成天暴怒，或者是遇到問題能沈著應對的?
我之前寫過類似的東西，美國的政治人物最愛用的字是”Tough”(強悍): “I am so tough so you can count on me”，本來不就是應該這樣? 我當然要選一個比我強的人，所以在我軟弱或不知怎麼辦時，他才能幫我。可是台灣的文化喜歡同情弱者，所以才會每次選舉都有一堆在那裡哭爸哭媽。美國選強者 所以美國愈來愈強，台灣支持弱者，所以愈來愈弱自然不例外。(拜託，叫你老爸老媽不要再投那些哭爸哭媽的了)
同樣的道理，美國的股東期待的也是一個個性穩定、理性、高抗壓的經營團隊，這樣的公司才值得長期投資嘛。既然市場這麼期待，自然公司的公關部門就會幫經營者塑造這樣的形象。看看台灣那些大老闆，一帆風順時個個談笑風生、鐵嘴直斷、大批政府無能，可是真的人家要併自己公司了，不是在震怒就是在哭哭，你真的覺得這種公司值得讓你投資嗎? 辜且不論老闆個性如何，至少就公關上來說，台灣上市公司還有很長的學習之路。
好啦，不想扯太多，以下就是信的原文，紅色字體部份是我的大意翻譯(當然也加上了點個人口語)
November 24, 2019
John Visentin
Vice Chairman and CEO
Xerox Holdings Corporation
201 Merritt 7
Norwalk, CT 06851-1056
CC: Keith Cozza, Chairman of Xerox Holdings Corporation; President and Chief Executive Officer, Icahn Enterprises L.P.(這是著名的股市禿鷹)
Dear John,
The HP Board of Directors has reviewed and considered your November 21 letter, which has provided no new information beyond your November 5 letter. We reiterate that we reject Xerox’s proposal as it significantly undervalues HP. Additionally, it is highly conditional and uncertain. In partiular, there continues to be uncertainty regarding Xerox’s ability to raise the cash portion of the proposed consideration and concerns regarding the prudence of the resulting outsized debt burden on the value of the combined company’s stock even if the financing were obtained. Consequently, your proposal does not constitute a basis for due diligence or negotiation.
約翰大哥，我們董事會已經看過而且考慮過你11/21的信了，這信和你11/5寫的根本沒什麼差別，再和你講一次，你出價太低了啦，而且你的出價充滿了太多不確定性，包括你的現金比例到底夠不夠，新合併公司的負債比例會不會太高，而且你說的條件中不含實地的查核和協商空間，所以我們決定再次拒絕
We believe it is important to emphasize that we are not dependent on a Xerox combination. We have great confidence in our strategy and the numerous opportunities available to HP to drive sustainable long-term value, including the deployment of our strong balance sheet for increased share repurchases of our significantly undervalued stock and for value-creating M&A.
我想你很清楚，就算合併後HP也不會是Xerox的小弟. 一直以來我們比你們強很多，我們手上也有很多資源來強化我們的資產負債表和提高股東價值，例如增加股票回購金額…等
It is clear in your aggressive words and actions that Xerox is intent on forcing a potential combination on opportunistic terms and without providing adequate information. When we were in private discussions with you in August and September, we repeatedly raised our questions; you failed to address them and instead walked away, choosing to pursue a hostile approach rather than continue down a more productive path. But these fundamental issues have not gone away, and your now-public urgency to accelerate toward a deal, still without addressing these questions, only heightens our concern about your business and prospects. Accordingly, we must have due diligence to determine whether a Xerox combination has any merit.
你嘴巴一直說要購併，可是卻不肯給我們足夠的資訊，你是要我評估個毛啊? 今年8月和9月私下會面時，我就一直問你這些問題，你避而不答還閃得遠遠的，反而用這種硬上的方式，可是那些問題還在啊! 你一直急著要成交卻不回答我們的疑慮，這不是更加深了我們對貴公司商業模式和前景的憂慮? 所以要合併，我們要求必須對Xerox實地查核 才知道有沒有什麼保留
We remain prepared to study the potential value of a combination and to work quickly to learn more about your business trajectory. However, there are significant concerns about both the near-term health and long-term viability of your business that have a significant impact on Xerox’s value. The question of whether there is a path to turn around your business is a threshold issue. In addition to the visible and substantial declines at Xerox, our specific concerns include:
說真的，我們依然在研究二家公司合併的綜效，但我們更擔心Xerox的前景，你總該先證明自己能活得很好才有資格談娶我吧! 以下是我們的考量:
Xerox has missed consensus revenue estimates in four of the last five quarters;
Xerox’s revenue has fallen from $10.2 billion to $9.2 billion (on a trailing 12-month basis) since June 2018, and this is expected to continue—Xerox management projects revenue declines of 6% in fiscal 2019;
Given how much of your business is based on contractual revenue, we are concerned about the decline in customer Total Contract Value (TCV) in excess of revenue declines, which suggests your revenues may decline even faster in future years. We note that the TCV of enterprise signings (including renewals) in 2018 was down 13.9% in constant currency and your churn for 2018 was 18%, both data points which Xerox has stopped providing publicly since the end of 2018;
你們營收過去5季有4季低於市場預期，過去1年從102億跌到92億，而且管理層預期2019年再跌6%.
再說了，你們營收主要來客戶合約，但問題是你們客戶合約下降幅度還大於營收下降幅度，換句話說，可預見未來幾年你們的營收都會持續下降
Our review of synergies based on public information and the limited information you have shared does not support achievable synergies of the scale you suggest, and it appears that your assumptions include significant savings that are already included in each company’s independently announced cost reduction plans; and
It appears to us that when Xerox exited the Fujifilm joint venture, Xerox essentially mortgaged its future for a short-term cash infusion. We fear that the exit has left a sizeable strategic hole in Xerox’s portfolio. In addition, we have concerns as to the state of Xerox’s technology resources, research and development pipeline, future product programs, and supply continuity and capability. Finally, we note that Xerox will have to get access to the fastest growing Asia Pacific region.
我們評估未來合併的綜效主要基於公開資訊，而這些資訊告訴了我們這個合併後效益並沒有你說的那麼大，你說的合併後可以大幅縮減成本，這種事每家公司早就在做了，好嗎? 還記得你們退出的日本富士相片的合資公司嗎? 你該告訴大家這個洞有多大吧? 還有我們也懷疑你們在產品研發、未來產品線、以及供應線的持續能力。最後，少了富士這個夥伴，你們要怎麼重回亞太區這個快速成長的市場?
The HP Board of Directors is committed to serving the best interests of HP shareholders, not Xerox and its shareholders. HP has numerous opportunities to create value for HP shareholders on a standalone basis. We will not let aggressive tactics or hostile gestures distract us from our responsibility to pursue the most value-creating path.
大哥請你搞清楚，HP董事會和經營層要努力的是提高HP股東的權益，而不是你們Xerox的，我們多的是機會在獨立的情況下提高我們的股東權益，你那點小招數是不能讓我們分心的
On behalf of the Board of Directors,
Enrique Lores
Chip Bergh
